Leaping Into 2004

Leaping Into 2004
by Drew Neisser

2004. It feels like there are two runners on, nobody out, the count is 3 and 0 and the manager just gave me the "swing for the fences" signal. Now I know baseball analogies may seem a little out of place, but bear with me as I make a case for a jam-breaking, base-clearing, innovation-led 2004.

Let's start with the fundamentals. With corporate profits up 30 percent for the first time in 19 years, marketers are waking up to smell the prospects, craving innovative and efficient ways to build their brands. But unlike booms of the past, traditional media approaches will be challenged with every click of the TV remote. And, the seemingly sudden disappearance of young male couch potatoes bodes well for innovators who have long considered Network TV a wasteland of inefficiency and lost promise. Ad agencies will soon be asked for a "Mini," the new euphemism for a media plan rich in unconventional outdoor, print and guerrilla, hoping to duplicate the Network TV-less success of the Mini Cooper launch.

Time for "Connecting" the Brand
2004 will belong to the connectors, those marketers who are prepared to replace CPMs with TWB (time with brand) as a more accurate measure of marketing impact. Cost-per-thousand is like a wooden baseball bat, it is still used by the tradition-bound big boys, but any minor leaguer will tell you a metal bat is a far more effective tool. Time with Brand takes into account the duration a potential customer spends with your brand over a range of marketing encounters. TWB favors experiential marketing activities that allow for a depth of sale and brand interaction far beyond the conventional 30-second TV unit.

Under 30s, Get "Game"
Expect to see more marketers developing online games in 2004 in pursuit of the ever-elusive under 30 crowd. These games will come in all shapes and sizes, from simple one-button classics to multi player, universe-conquering, mind-altering extravaganzas. The challenge for marketers will be to find just the right moment to integrate their message, either in a funny and entertaining way during the game or through a clever offer at its end. Either way, if done correctly, the consumer is likely to be willing to spend more time with the brand, in an unspoken quid pro quo for the provided entertainment value.

Rich Brand Experience, On and Off-Line
Rich brand experiences, whether online or off, will reward marketers and consumers alike, providing a fair exchange of time for information. These experiences will start the buzz, not because they are tragically hip but because they are built upon a genuine consumer insight. These insights will be discovered through anthropological observation and online customer panels, as focus groups finally lose their place atop the research food chain. While I'm sure it is way too early to ring the death knell for groups, one can only hope that marketers will consider the many higher yield alternatives.

"Integrated" Still Promises
As in years past, marketers will continue to pursue the promise of integrated marketing while few will actually be better off for their effort. Most "integrated" campaigns will share a common vocabulary and visual appearance but will lack the "big idea" that can unify the messaging without limiting the power of any individual medium. It seems certain that even fewer marketers will craft a multi-tiered brand experience that builds from medium to medium and culminates in a long-term dialogue. But those who do will seize the day and more market share.

Though 2004 promises to be bountiful for most of the marketing world, it won't be without its land mines and dead-ends. Online marketing is going to explode and then implode as marketers try and then fail to leverage emerging techniques like blogs, IM environments and viral movies. The proliferation of blogs will create a density of blabber that will ultimately collapse under the weight of its uselessness. Blogs will become bogs, not because all serve up largely unreadable tripe but because most do, especially those from over-zealous marketers who want to tell their whole story without respecting the "get real" conventions of this new media type.

IMing to Boom, Bust
IM environments like those Yahoo offers will also experience a rapid boom-bust cycle as marketers climb aboard this clever bandwagon. First the province of movie marketers, IM environments are now being used effectively by brands as diverse as Panasonic, Adidas and Texas Tourism. And it is no wonder. Yahoo's IMvironments alone can help marketers reach upwards of 20 million young adults and teens with their full permission in a matter of a few days. The more entertaining the environment, the more likely someone will choose it as a background for their instant messages and the faster their friends will do the same. The only problem is that as more marketers start to use them, the novelty will wear off. Remember when banner ad response rates weren't measured in hundredths of percents? Well, it won't be long before IM environments proliferate themselves to the storage bin of overused great ideas.

Viral to Spread, Search to Score
Viral movies will continue to gain traction as more and more marketers produce web-only commercials that are longer and more colorful than their offline counterparts. These spots will try to replicate the success of BMW films or the Honda "Cog" commercial but few will do so. Those that produce off-color spots and then try to pretend they weren't the ones behind the effort will be caught and embarrassed by the overzealous PC police. Those who aim for "feature film" quality will realize that producing a hit movie is just as hard for marketers as it is for Hollywood. So brace yourself for more online "Gigli's" than you can shake a cursor at.

The one grand slam for online marketing in 2004 will be Search, key word and otherwise. Not just a dream instrument for direct marketers, Search is a simple way of connecting with prospects that want to make a very specific connection. Given the auction-style pricing structure, marketers need only pay a rate that works for them. The math is reasonably straightforward, starting with value-per-web visit and ending with lifetime value-per-customer. If you are a marketer and not yet buying Search, you will be doing so in 2004 or wishing you had (sort of like the now unemployed Boston Red Sox manager who fatefully decided against bringing in his reliever with the series on the line!)

Experimentation in 2004 will not be limited to online activities. Lots of eager marketers will explore relatively new territory like WiFi and cellular technologies in an effort to reach a younger demographic. From text messaging to photo swapping, marketers will be hoping to persuade before they annoy. And they just might succeed assuming helpful, relevant information arrives precisely at the moment of need. Otherwise, you'll hear the inevitable refrain "keep your damn messages off my cell phone" and calls for legislative intervention a la SPAM.

With occasional skeptical thought aside, my crystal ball is brimming with positivism about 2004. Armed with real budgets chasing aggressive growth goals, marketers will be seeking innovation the way George Steinbrenner stalks starting pitchers. Risk will re-enter many marketers' vocabulary as they experiment offline and online to build durable customer relationships, moving well beyond the confines of TV ads. While traditional media metrics like CPM will not disappear, new measures like TWB will gain credibility.

And finally, in a world haunted by corporate wrongdoing, honesty and transparency will be the big hitters, driving campaigns home for all who dare to use them. Conversely, stealth marketing will be abandoned by all but the truly desperate, as enlightened marketers no longer confuse deception with the noble art of building brands. Now that would put the leap in this leap year, wouldn't it?

About the Author...

Drew Neisser is the President & CEO of Renegade Marketing Group.
http://www.renegademarketing.com
Reprinted with permission.

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